Last month, we reported on research published by Goldman Sachs predicting that global music industry revenues would drop by 25% this year due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Those figures included a 75% plummet for live music revenues, and a slowdown in growth for recorded music (to 3%) and music publishing (3.5%).
Yesterday, we reported on Kobalt CEO Willard Ahdritz’s belief that publishing will actually decline this year, but that recorded music will grow more.
Now consultancy firm Midia Research has put its own predictions out. It reckons that recorded music retail values (spending) will grow by 2.5% this year; that publishing will fall by 3.6%; and that live revenues will be down by 75%. What’s more, Midia thinks that the industry’s merchandise revenues will decline by 54%, and sponsorship income by 30%. Even with the predicted growth for recorded music, there’s a warning.
“If the recession deepens significantly in the second half of 2020, the combined effect of higher unemployment and reduced consumer spending could result in a worst case scenario of -4.0% annual growth for recorded music,” it explained. “If the economy recovers in 2021, recorded music revenue will return to growth also.” This highlights, in a way, the futility of anyone predicting what’s going to happen to music industry revenues this year, while the pandemic is still happening.