Friday, November 8, 2019

Bloomberg | Lefsetz Letter

I’m not sure whether this works or not.

Not quite a year ago, before the circus began, I said that if Bloomberg ran, he’d win.

But he didn’t, run that is.

That surprised me, since you don’t become a billionaire, certainly on Wall Street, without an ego. Didn’t he have the law changed so he could run for a third term in New York City? That takes chutzpah. I figured Michael had skeletons in his closet, or believed he was just too old.

But the story today is he believed Biden would win, so he stayed out. How delusional is he? I knew Biden had no chance, first and foremost because he’d blow himself up, he has a long history of this. Furthermore, we know there are Biden fans in Scranton and Delaware, but anywhere else? He’s like an opening act, a favor for the agent, someone tolerable if you come late, who you don’t mind missing.

Now in tech, where Bloomberg made his money, there’s a first-mover advantage. The key is to run so fast, as Mark Zuckerberg once said, “move fast and break things,” so no one can catch up. Bloomberg owns the terminal space, even when it was discovered the company was spying on its customers, despite there being talk of an upstart, nobody challenged the behemoth.


Getting in late is kind of like RFK in ’68. Yup, RFK didn’t think he could win, but then when Gene McCarthy was getting all that traction, he felt it’d be easy, like taking candy from a baby. Unfortunately, Kennedy was shot, and ultimately in a year of unrest, where the convention itself was a site of protest and police overreaction, the candidate was Humphrey, and Hubert lost.

Biden isn’t even Humphrey. But the lesson of ’68 is there are incalculable grass roots, disaffection with the status quo, that the inside players and the media aren’t in touch with.

So that brings us to George McGovern. 1972 was not 1968. The younger generation was licking its wounds, the mass protests were over, it was the wrong time. Which is the lesson the DNC does not get, it’s not 2016 anymore, it’s 2020, and people have changed.

Which brings us to Dukakis. That’s the paradigm the DNC is afraid of. It believes Warren is Dukakis, but it’s not 1988 anymore. Sure, it’s important to study history, but also not to be blinded by it. If history repeats at all, it’s with a twist.

And the history we’re talking about is 2016, and the twist is now. Trump tapped into discontent. The DNC and its cronies believe it was all white supremacists, hogwash! I know three people right off the top of my head who voted for Trump, all friends. One a famous musician, from one of the bluest states. Trump pointed out the flaws in globalization, the raw deal for the rank and file. And Hillary was damaged goods, the right had defined her.

And now the right has defined Adam Schiff. They pushed back and Schiff shut up. WRONG! Anybody will tell you you stand up to the bully. As for this newfangled b.s. that you need to campaign without mentioning Trump’s name… THAT’S NOT THE WAY HE PLAYS! Get into the street fight!

If the Democrats had balls, Trump would go, long before the election. If they stopped being such wimps and went on every TV show and sold their position, spread it online, it would help the cause. Instead, the Dems allow the pundits, the media, the usual suspects, to say that there’s no way Trump gets convicted in the Senate. WRONG! You’ve got to shame the Republican Senators. Make it about the vaunted Constitution. Paint them as traitors to subsequent generations. Declare them enablers. Trump is like a five year old with crumbs on his lips who says he didn’t raid the cookie jar. Just because the evidence is in plain sight, that does not mean they’re not guilty.

So these same wimps in D.C. have a fantasy that the public wants a centrist. Huh? What Trump taught us was just the opposite, you play to the disaffected, you speak truth, you bring the voters to you, and not vice versa. If Bloomberg had gotten in early and attacked Trump he would have run away with the race. Now he looks like an opportunistic billionaire, when everybody hates billionaires except the people themselves and those sucking on the tit of them. I know I’ll never become a billionaire, I don’t think there should be billionaires, I’m sick of the billionaires pontificating, thinking just because they have money they’re right and we should listen to them. And Bloomberg played right into the hands of Warren and Sanders, who both pushed back today. Once again, Bloomberg is too late.

As for Bernie, there’s no doubt that he would have beaten Trump in 2016. But he was an outsider who didn’t play the game so the DNC got behind Hillary, saying it was “her turn.” When I hear that crap I cringe. It’s nobody’s turn, nobody’s earned it, that’s what we’ve learned in music, in Hollywood, where there are feuds and the only people who sustain are running on fumes, playing their old hits, because the younger generation doesn’t care and the old fans don’t want to hear new music.

Warren is today’s Sanders.

But it gets worse for the DNC. They may have a dozen people at the debate, but there are only three candidates, Warren, Sanders and Buttigieg. Biden is done. Klobuchar has got no chance. As for Harris, the media built her up but there was no there there, she didn’t really have any fans. As for Buttigieg…he was the great gay hope ten months ago, then he couldn’t control chaos in his own city and moved to the center and lost his credibility. It’s not that he’s gay, but because he’s got a bad track record and no one can get excited about his new stances.

So I can’t get excited about Bloomberg, I just saw him as somebody who could win. And then the media said Warren had no chance when she came from behind to be the frontrunner. Showing you how much these pontificating nitwits know. Warren is tapping into mistrust, a feeling of being screwed over, those who didn’t have the money to pay Rick Singer to get their kids into an elite college. I mean I jumped through all the hoops and now I’m a loser, a chump? That’s how I feel when I compare myself to the billionaires. The government used to be on my side, and then Reagan labeled it inefficient and needing to be pruned and the right stayed on message and the media bought it and now the biggest crime in Presidential politics is saying the word “tax.”

Which undercut Warren. She was sailing smoothly and wouldn’t answer the question directly. I winced, was this her Billy Squier moment? At least she finally released a plan, who cares if it’ll work, it’ll never be enacted, but it illustrates her heart is in the right place. And Warren keeps fighting back! Something Hillary didn’t and Biden choked on Ukraine, let the President define him, and Bloomberg wouldn’t even enter the race.

It’s about passion people. Kids believe in Billie Eilish. With the baggy clothes hiding her body and…

If you talk to kids today, they chastise you when you use a plastic water bottle. But somehow the right owns this issue, making California a laughingstock with its banned straws. If you run with the climate crisis it will energize those who’ve given up hope, those who say the game is rigged.

Yup folks, this is the same DNC, the same insiders, who got it wrong last time and are still getting it wrong today. It’s almost like they want Warren to lose to make a point. That you play their game or you’re out.

Of course Warren can win. The worthless polls keep telling us that. As for Trump, everybody said he couldn’t win. But even those on the left, even the “New York Times,” thought he was not really a crook, and that he was smart. Now we know he’s a narcissistic buffoon, you think that people aren’t aware of that? Look at last year’s elections, and last Tuesday’s, do you see the blue surge?

But the funniest thing is writing about the Democrats I’ll hear from the Republicans, defending Trump and laughing at those on the left. Where are the people on the left working the refs? Everybody on the left is so worried about offending somebody that they don’t take action.

As for identity politics…a minor story involving few people, ignore it. Candidates should say these are issues that need to be addressed once they’re elected, that they want to support minorities, but that without power there is oppression.

And it’s not even about stretching health care, but making sure coverage doesn’t shrink.

And the tariffs and sale of public lands and everything people are passionately against…crickets.

So Bloomberg will come along and satiate the DNC, but other than that organization and some rich people, maybe even left wing billionaires, nobody will get excited. We’re not looking for daddy to save us, we’re looking for someone ready for a knife fight, a leader, who will attack the other side. For Bloomberg to win, he’s got to come out punching…but no, he’s a quiet mastermind, the wrong guy for the time.

So, the DNC and its cronies are alienating their base. I know it sounds impossible, but they are, the same people who voted for Jill Stein last time around, the same people who are new voters, they think they’re being ignored. They want to send a message, that it’s not business as usual, they want to storm the asylum, and the DNC wants to bring the asylum back?

Who are these mysterious centrists? Are you really telling me African-Americans won’t vote for Warren?

Statistics and polls will tell you where you’ve been, not where you’re going.

It’s no longer business as usual. It’s closer to 1968 than 1988. The youth are restless. And Trump will do his best to scare those who voted Democratic and then switched to Republican last time. And what will the Democrats do? Have a circular firing squad.

They call this disruption. The DNC should read Clayton Christensen’s “Innovator’s Dilemma,” institutions super-serving the usual suspects are overthrown by enterprises that appear to be fringe and then go mainstream and take over.

All this b.s. about infrastructure. A man with Bloomberg’s money and relationships can build it in a day, or close to it.

But will the hoi polloi buy it?

They just might not.


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